Is this a possibility, probability, or certainty?
Dumb and Dumber, percentages of certainty, and losing your child at Marina Bay...
We lost Will.
He’s gotten pretty fast on his scooter and by the time we caught up to the corner where he turned, he was gone.
This is our first time this has happened and it’s amazing how quickly you can spiral. For the first few minutes, you’re frustrated with the child for having gone ahead. When you hit five minutes, you’re suddenly the worst parent in the world and you’re wondering if you have the same set of skills that Liam Neeson does in Taken.
Will had turned the corner and scootered back on a separate street so we never saw each other. After scootering two kilometers, over a bridge, past a Merlion, and eventually settling at a bus stop, Will was helped over to the security guards who then connected with us.
I’ve been doing this question project for about 18 months now and it’s interesting to see the effect of it at different. The moment I began imagining that I was Liam Neeson, I stopped. I said a quick but heartfelt prayer, and then had a question pop into my head. What’s possible, what’s probable, and what’s certain?
Nothing was certain at that point, so I could move on.
There were tons of possibilities (he was taken, he drowned, many of my possible scenarios seemed to lead to death or worse).
But there was also a strong probability that we would find him, that someone would help, and that he might be scared but was likely safe. I leaned into the probable scenario as we ran around looking for him which allowed me to stay way more present and alert.
It’s a small example, but was a good reminder for me about where I allow my mind to go. We often spend too much time focused on small possibilities instead of leaning into the most probable outcomes.
So the next time something bad happens, give yourself a minute or two to quickly ask, “is this a possibility, probability, or certainty?”
Take it or Leave It
Dumb and Dumber. Remember the scene in Dumb and Dumber where Jim Carey’s character Lloyd declares his love for Mary and then asks her what the odds are of them being together? “One in a million,” she responds.
And then with the biggest smile he says, “so you’re telling me there’s a chance! Yeah!” We laugh at his willingness to cling to the tiniest possibility but how often do we do this when something seems wrong? Why are you directing all of your energy and attention to a scenario that’s possible but not probable?
Assign a percentage. Trim the definitions down to their core and you get this: Possible = able to happen
Probable = likely to happen
Certain = already happened
In her book How to Decide, Annie Duke talks about the misuse of words like possibility, probability, always, likely, maybe, often, rarely, and usually. The problem with words like these and with possible and probable is that we don’t always establish our personal meaning before we start making group decisions using these words as guides. If you’re going to use the words, take the time to establish a shared understanding. And better than words is forcing yourself to commit to a percentage prediction. We don’t naturally do this. For some people this is uncomfortable because you don’t want to lock yourself into a specific number. But if you aren’t willing to commit to a number, how sure are you? It’s easy to hide behind the words listed above. There’s a lot of wiggle room.
The fear of what’s possible. Seneca speaks to this from almost contrasting angles. “We suffer more in imagination than in reality.” – Seneca Ok, so don’t worry too much about things that likely won’t happen. “The man who has anticipated the coming of troubles takes away their power when they arrive.” — SenecaBut, also make sure to anticipate the worst possible scenarios because at least then you will feel prepared. These two quotes could save all of us a whole lot of time. Prepare for the worst case scenario(s) and then stop worrying because right now they are only possibilities, not probabilities, or even reality yet.
My Take
Did you ever play games like Mortal Kombat, Street Fighter, or Killer Instinct? Remember when the person started into some crazy combination of moves and it felt like you were just getting destroyed for 10 seconds? The only way to stop the pain was to use a combo breaker. It immediately put an end to things and bought you a little time to figure out what to do next. This question is the perfect combo breaker to use when life strikes with some type of bad combination. Make it a default setting so that you never end up on the wrong end of things for too long.